manus: talks between greece by mr. elect elect and his german and french -- the greek prime minister elect and his german and french counterparts. anna: criticism on ukraine as the war torn nation comes close to a restructuring of its debt. mark: oh oil heads for the straight -- 10th straight week of gains. the bank of japan refrains from monetary stimulus. manus: the oil exporter says
saudi arabia will oncene day sell solar power instead. we are live at the climate summit. mark: welcome to "countdown." coming up, i will speak to two england rugby champions in the first interviews of the day. that is a conversation you will not want to miss. anna: mark is not looking forward to that. let's bring you up to speed with what you have missed. u.s. stocks climbed to record levels after economic data added to speculation the fed will not rush to raise interest rates. crude oil rallied while the dollar weakened. mark: david english's -- ingles
is in hong kong. david: we are up a further 2%. a four-day run. not an ordinary four-day run. the biggest so far this year. i think we are up 300 points. just from last tuesday, $400 billion of market cap added. that is for the shanghai composite. volumes are quite heavy. double the three-month average. take a look at the charts, some of the indicators, they show you at levels which prompted a move down over 1-2 weeks at these levels. in any case, a bad set of economic data has fueled the market.
while we are talking about chinese markets, let's mention this major wipeout in hong kong. three stocks, golden financial, golden properties, $35 billion of market cap wiped out. it has prompted a conversation about whether regulators should have seen this coming or done more to prevent this massive selloff. it is all up to investors. in this case, golden financial. before the drop it was trading 25 times book value. mark: the boj announced its latest policy stance. what is the reaction that take away from what they said? david: there was nothing really
new. they refrained from anything new. let's get the nikkei 225. nothing new. $660 billion a year. that is the injection into the economy. the bet is improving growth. that will help, or at least put upward pressure on inflation and inflation expectations. where do you go from here? will japan ever get to the inflation target? we are not very near it. earlier today, we spoke to an economist at hsbc. she covers japan karen listen into what she had to say as far as the inflation expectations are concerned. >> i think they will get close to 2%.
it is a matter of timing and fees. we do think there will be disconnected between the actual pace of price growth and their target. david: dollar yen, stronger today. 120 .81. if we do get a press conference later. mark: david, thank you. anna: late-night negotiations broke down without any sign of a breakthrough. for a deal to unlock bailout funds. hans nichols has the story. after the hold and the conversation last night, what is the next step. hans: the leaders agreed to stay in close contact. they will continue to talk. we had the leaders in the room almost all the way up until 1:00 a.m. in close proximity.
we know what the dispute is. the red lines continue to be performing the vat. additionally, what about labor costs? the primary account surplus what you do on those figures. there is the opportunity to continue discussions today. most of the pessimism seems to be driven by the fact that francois hollande was confident coming into the meeting but coming out, nothing was matched and there was no tangible sign of any deal being reached. anna: what should we watch out for in terms of the ongoing greek saga? hans: it looks like there may be another meeting. there were reports that uecker had a half piecemeal plan. he denied that and said that was not on the table.
there's always a chance for talks to restart with all the leaders. and then there is data coming out of greece. it is coming out around 11:00 london time. that could influence the conversation. if we get a sense the economy is deterring faster than expected. anna: thank you very much. watching all developments greece taking place. manus: let's stay on the subject. we are happy to have you in. this is just continued talks. the greeks have red lines. europe does not sound as if it is yielding. what is your scenario at the moment? you have three outcomes. lay them out for us. guest: what we call a semi
stable agreement is the most likely. we put a 60% probability on that. the idea is a political agreement will be made, and initial payout will be made. then we will have to negotiate a third bailout package. we have seen the situation rumbling around the situation. there is a risk of new elections in greece as a result of this. we find it difficult to see where there is a solution and we can say, greece is solved. this is an ongoing issue. anna: it looks as if when we get the breakthrough, it might only feel like a partial breakthrough. only with the europeans and not the imf. we end up with some of the funds on locked.
michala: they tell us to participate, the debt situation needs to be sustainable. with the deterioration of the public finances and the economic situation the debt sustainability is not met. that means an initial compromise is likely to rethink a third bailout package which we estimate would have to be in the vicinity of $60 billion-$80 billion. mark: how likely is a new greek election? michala: there are many possibilities. it is not a black and white situation. it is nuances of grays, if you like. a new election is something that
could happen. it depends on how the different fractions line up and where the copper mines is are reached. back to your famous redlines. that is very difficult today. manus: the fed are worried about greece. europe is worried about greece. are we estimating the economic reverberations that could potentially take place even if we have a semi stable bailout scenario? michala: there are three elements we need to focus on. if we think about the absolute size of greece in relation to the european economy, it is relatively small. if we think about the potential losses, they are more significant in terms of the target to bailout exposure and private sector exposure. that's probably just over 1% of euro area around 3% of euro
area gdp. it is manageable in size. the risk of contagion comes down to how do markets perceive a potential default with the risk of a potential grexit? and then how are the politics managed? if you have a situation where collector it's are suddenly being told they are suffering significant losses, this is a risk that could further fuel some of the populist parties we have seen previously winning on these issues. manus: we have a lot more to get through. you are going to stay with us. mark: the top stories on bloomberg. my own draghi and other policy makers eye portugal. draghi said conditions have improved somewhat but growth is
too low. david cameron has a -- cameron is seeking changes to treaties and eu welfare reforms. he can make the case to voters to stay and the union. these plans are not part of the summit agenda and will have to be discussed on the sidelines. hsbc has suspended credit trade in london this month a ccording two people familiar with the matter. people don't know the reason for the suspension. manus: we are all on twitter.
there are only three people worth listening to on greece. the "countdown" and michala. anna: we have a star-studded cast today. mark: we will speak to two england rugby world cup winners. their first interviews of the day. manus: in an other exclusive, a guest from climate finance day in paris. we are back in two bang minutes -- two minutes. ♪
manus: you are there, i thought you were just playing with me. what is day to about? -- two about? caroline: it is the final say. executives from the world of finance who are going to discuss how private finance can help and how climate change is a risk to the stability of the global economy. investing less in industries which are big consumers of fossil fuels. we have had interesting surprises so far, including from the saudi arabia oil minister who was speaking with my colleague francine lacqua yesterday. saudi arabia is the biggest exporter of oil. even them, they want to do their part to fight against climate
change. >> saudi arabia we recognize eventually, one of these days, we are not going to need fossil fuels. i don't know when. 2040, 2050 or thereafter. we have embarked on a program to develop solar energy. why? when we look up, we have the sun every day. acreage to lay them out. a very attractive project. we are embarked on developing a major integrated industry from the silica and in the ground to the panels and electric company. hopefully one of these days instead of exporting fossil
fuels, we will be exporting electric power. does that sound good? ?[applause] >> one of these days, in 30 years? >> i think we will see major gigawatt production in the next five years. caroline: the oil minister saying they are embarking on a big program to double solar energy. we might have some doubts about whether this is going to bring as much revenue as the oil industry in the short-term but it is a sign that the global community is realizing the emergency. we are 200 days away from a conference. six years after the failure of
the copenhagen summit, there is much to do like putting a global price on carbon and finding a binding agreement which will involve the u.s. and china. we will talk to many executives. that is coming up in the next hour on bloomberg tv. this is a new name that has been changed to better -- manus: thank you very much. anna: stay with us. the global head of economics. oil heading for a record run. we have come a long way since when were talking about when oil was $30 a barrel or $40 a barrel. back up above $60 now. where are things heading in the energy debate for you? mihcchala: clearly there is a
dollar link to oil. to my mind, basically, when we look at the oil market the $50-75 dollar range does feel comfortable at the moment. when you think about what is the marginal cost of the production of shale, obviously there are different numbers, but we are in that range wfor some considerable time to come. in the meeting about the geopolitics of russia and climate change, it is the european project of the energy union. this is something that if it does move forward could be good. we see several european economies facing an energy challenge. infrastructure investment. draghi is calling for more expansion.
obviously, if you can develop the energy grids and networks, you can help some of the security. then you can think about the climate aspects of it. and you can see how the union can pull the threads together. mark: survey data was mixed after the encouraging gdp number. is there a concern that the second quarter could be a disappointment? michala: when we strip down the details, it was the story of private consumption and some inventory. when we look at things like that export sector, investment, these continue to lag. the survey data does give us a sense of some of the momentum flattening out. nonetheless, i think we are
running somewhere around the 1.5% mark which is above trend potential growth. we estimate it to be around 1%. it is still not that strong growth momentum we need to get things like that sustainability in place. i will say it once again, we say it all the time, structural reform comes into the picture. it is painful and annoying and i think it is absolutely key we get the structural reforms going here. that to me is the most important thing for europe in the years to come. back to the energy union, that is very much part of it. labor markets, pensions. all of those things. manus: the bank of japan has cap a yearly target for quantitative easing. the yen depreciation continues
against many currencies apart from the dollar. you expect the bank of japan to move again? we have had encouraging data. what is your take on the data this week? michala: once we start breaking it down, we find a similar picture. it is very much a domestic story. we are not seeing enough momentum coming through. looking at japan, we are constructive. we are beginning to see some of the improvements on the income side. that should also lead to improvements -- to your question about the boj, i think it is likely the boj would come in with further easing but probably a little later in the year. anna: stay with us for a minute. the russian ambassador to the eu's book to us in the exclusive interview about his country's
relationship with greece. >> greece has not asked for one. russia is not imposing its money on anybody. i don't think this should be a method. greece has indicated, the greek government has indicated it would be happy to see enhanced russian investments. i am aware of certain projects being developed along those lines both in the energy sector, the transport sector. we have always had good relations with greece. based on shall i say our common religious ties and historical ties.
the role of russia in the 19th century in greece's struggle for independence was quite an important one. anna: the russian ambassador to the eu talking about russia's relationship with greece. as they watch what is happening close to their borders in riga how does the russian economy look to you? michala: obviously there are cyclical publications coming from the current sanctions. implications from the lower oil prices. i think what is really important is what are the long-term growth prospects for the economy. i think it is quicker russia is able to secure a political solution to the current crisis. this is key for foreign direct
the currency has weekend over the past month against the broader basket. i want to show you two currencies where you begin to understand. sterling and euro strength against yen. this is the pound up against yen. the euro rising against the end by nearly 5%. morgan stanley says, you want to buy dollar yen with a target of 127. yen is one of the most moldable currencies according to morgan stanley. as the fx check. -- that is the fx check. we are going to head to riga where the eastern european summit is taking place. we are taking -- joined by the european commission vice president. thank you for joining us on bloomberg. officially, the discussions
were productive with regard to greece. where did you progress with regards to greece? guest: first of all this is the eastern partnership summit so the main items are with regards to eastern partnership countries. as regards greece, what i can say is technical negotiations are still ongoing. we know progress has not been as fast as it should. we are in the second half of may. the negotiations are still ongoing.
those are all reasons to step up the negotiations and complete the bailout graham. for this to happen -- bailout program. for this to happen, it is important that all sides stick with their commitments. manus: we understand there are red lines from greece. did you discuss those red lines? was there any movement by greece on those red lines? vat? labor reform and pensions? mr. dombrovskis: technical negotiations are ongoing intensely. brussels is working intensely. it is important that degrees percent a comprehensive package. it should be clear that there is
a clear exit strategy. how greece is returning to sustainable public financing and how greece is returning to the economic growth. manus: was there any discussion of a two-stage resolution to be considered? mr. dombrovskis: currently from the european commission point of view, we are concentrating on the scenario which foresees successful completion by the end of june. manus: one of the key elements of the resolution will be all sides making commitments. our understanding is for the imf to meet their commitments
the amount of debt greece has must be addressed. has there been discussion about the debt sustainability of greece? mr. dombrovskis: debt sustainability analysis is certainly an important part of any bailout program. to ensure that sustainability, -- debt sustainability, it is important to ensure sound public finances. after successful completion of the program, there could be discussions on the greek conditionality. we're not discussing this. 2012 allows a step
conditionality issue. see how that can be addressed. manus: what do you think of the proposition that these discussions have gone on for 120 days now. it is almost a daily sitcom show. you believe the ongoing discussion is damaging the global reputation of europe to deal with issues that arise? mr. dombrovskis: certainly this is a very competent at situation but i think it is first and foremost important for the greek economy and greek people that the agreement is reached as soon as possible. manus: would you agree this is a european problem and has not been resolved as a real or ongoing issue?
this is damage to reputation at its worst, isn't it? mr. dombrovskis: well, it is certainly ongoing. that is why the european commission is emphasizing so much the need to speed up the negotiations and successfully complete the negotiations. to do so based on a current oil out program. -- billail out program. manus: you were finance minister of latvia. given your experience, do you think what europe is asking greece to clement is fair? mr. dombrovskis: the question here is, if the country is in a situation where it is cut off from the financial markets, it
is first and foremost important to regain financial stability. financial stability is a precondition for economic growth. if you don't have financial stability, banks are not lending to the economy. citizens are not spending. companies are not investing and you are getting deeper into recession. the program is oriented towards the restoration of financial stability and with this economic growth and more opportunities to address economic and social problems in greece. manus: before i let you go, i have to ask you -- david cameron coming to riga -- where if at all you think there will be support for mr. cameron and his challenge to reform the eu. is there an appetite for reform to support cameron?
mr. dombrovskis: once again, to emphasize the main topic of the summit is the eastern partnership. but of course we are ready to constructively engage with the u.k., david cameron, on his proposals and vision with regards to reforms in europe. also the outgoing referendum in the u.k., certainly the european commission is of the opinion that u.k. staying in the eu is in the interest of both. mr. dombrovskis: thank you for taking the time to speak with us. anna: still with us, michala:. an interesting perspective on austerity. he used to lead latvia.
latvia opposed a great deal of a steroid he to protect its currency peg against the euro. looking at it through the lens of how much austerity needs to be imposed on greece right now, are the europeans imposing too much? michala: the real issue is on the structural reforms. if we look at the situation of spain, the public finances are not so great but what is important is the structural reforms have gone through. and the political debate, we have shifted away from the draconian austerity much more towards the focus on the structural reforms. this is where the real issue is. is greece getting the reforms in
place? that is more important to the european leaders then a precise budget deficit. physical a steroid he is part of that. i would say when we look at the greek numbers, greece has done a lot in terms of austerity. it is really about getting those final structural reforms into place. coming back to my kind of semi-stable solution, the implementation. which i also think is going to be challenging for greece in the current environment. mark: it has been a big week for u.s. data. the push for a june meeting seems to have been moved backwards. economists pinning their hopes on a september meeting. where do you stand in the great fed hike bait? michala: we stand on a september meeting as well. the u.s. economy, we are seeing
a loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector. the hopes are pinned on the consumer. at the end of the day, it boils down to a question of what happens to the savings ratio. if we go back to the precrisis time, they would leverage it up and spend it. now it seems next for dollar is actually being saved. that is really does -- it seems that extra dollar is actually being saved. there are a number of reasons why consumers will say. rebuilding talents sheets and strengthening can read it makes a huge difference whether the savings ratio is above 5% or closer to 4.5%. there's a lot of cyclical volatility. coming to the end of the year
we saw the ratio running up. post abou -- most of us are expecting it to come down and. that will make a big difference. anna: are economists ever happy with the amount consumers are saving? michala: are economists ever happy? that is a very philosophical question. but the savings ratio is a difficult variable to forecast. that will be one of the key drivers for the fed. with the fed needs is confidence the recovery is strong enough. that will be up to the consumer over the coming months. anna: thank you so much for spending your early morning with us. global head of economics. mark: you can join the conversation on twitter. this is where you will find us today.
anna: the top stories on bloomberg this hour. the bank of japan -- the governor has said there is no need for further easing because of a virtuous economic cycle that he says is working even as cheaper oil weighs on inflation. deutsche bank's co-ceo received a little -- the lowest level of support and a decade. he'd knowledge -- technology the bank failed to keep keep promises. china's moves into the contested south china sea are bringing the u.s. and vietnam closer together. then bester says the two countries are holding more high-level talks. both countries view china's assertions as a threat to their strategic interests.
manus: let's bring you breaking news on greece. greece is facing liquidity problems. this is from a spokesperson for the government. greece aims to reach a deal with their creditors by the end of may. we just finished that conversation with mr. dombrovskis: from regard talking about the need for urgency. all meta-merkel had to say was -- ms. merkel had to say was good night. those are two straight headlines. they are under pressure from liquidity and they hope to have a deal by the end of may.
mark: land rover launches the rugby event by floating a giant ball down the thames. thank you for joining us. guest: no problem. mark: if i can start with you, i can see the land rowve an trophy, but i cannot see the giant rugbyr ball. tell me what has been happening. a lewis: we had a reasonably early start. i was housed inside the giant ball and we had a reveal of the land rover defender. taking its tour around the u.k., the u.k. cup trophy tour. i had to drive it out of the voidable ball -- inflatable ball. i did it successfully.
guest: everybody is still standing. mark: martin, you were there on hand to put the trophy into the vehicle's display. what was it like holding on to the trophy? what was it like to hold on to it again as a former captain of a winning side? martin: it was ok. we are at the end of domestic season and the focus will be the world cup. the land rover is a fantastic vehicle producer. and looks stunning with the trophy in the back. it should be great having the two were and promoting the tournament. fantastic tournament.
mark: are you confident they are going to get out of their group? it has been called the group of death with australia, wales fiji, and uruguay. how confident are you that england will progress beyond the group? martin: it is probably the toughest group ever at a rugby world cup. it puts you in good stead for the rest of the tournament if you get out. we have to wait and see. that is the reason we play the games. there are no reasons we can't beat those teams at home, but they can be them on any given day. fiji is going to be tough, the opening game. the tournament will start from the first, there is no easing into it. it is good to be in a tournament that is tough. you want to be in tough games. it will be a cracking tournament. it starts right from the first
whistle england-fiji. mark: i would say it was mildly overshadowed by the admission of those players who ply their trade in france. what is your view on the inability of england to choose nondomestic players? are you for it or against it? lewis: i think, you know, he said he was never going to go against himself. i think it is a real shame. he has had a great couple of years. he left the english shores when that rule was not in place. he has fallen foul of it since being there. he has had a phenomenal couple
of seasons. but there is no guarantee he would fit into the new set. it would be exciting to see him and how he pushes the other players. he brings a different dynamic to the back row. mark: sam burgess one question is do you think he will make the final squad? the second is, if he makes the final squad, what is his best position? martin: he came in with a big fanfare. it was always going to be tough for him. the great thing for stewart, he has 50 guys. normally, who are preparing for the next game. with the world cup training you have the chance for them to compete with each other and to do more. it is a great opportunity for them to come into the camp.
compete and show what they can do. i think he is going to need all 31. the nature of the game is how tough they are going to be. i don't fear is room for a wildcard. you have to trust all those guys. four years ago, he came in another great world cup. we will see. it is an opportunity for him to read any of the guys in the training squad but don't make it, the newer guys, it is a chance to get better and improve. if you are rubbing shoulders with the best players in the country for an extended time of weeks, it is a chance to improve. it will be interesting. competitive. at this point, 20 plus of the guys will go there. things can change. they will force themselves in.
mark: lewis, martin mentioned a player who will not be playing in the world cup after admitting to assaulting two female police officers. how much of a loss is it to england? lewis: it is a disappointment. certainly no guarantee. he had been out for a year with injury. his absence gives a lot of other guys an opportunity. sam burgess will come in. there are a lot of guys. yes, his absence is disappointing but there are a lot of great players and a lot of guys with ability. mark: any word is england going to win the world cup? in a word? martin: perhaps.
lewis: may be written mark: good answers. thank you for joining us. perhaps, maybe, england's chances of winning the world cup this year. former rugby union captains, martin johnson and lewis moody. anna: is that what you call english understatement? perhaps and maybe. picks from our digital output. one of an investment nature? manus: where to go for a 20% return. budapest. the irish and spanish and invested in 2008, hungarians were doing it for themselves. you can get a yield of 20% on short-term rentals in budapest. 5% on long-term. anna: we will take a little
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only at a sleep number store. save $500 on the memorial day special edition mattress with sleepiq, plus 36-month special financing. ends monday! know better sleep with sleep number. manus: rumble in riga. late night talks and in the early hours of the morning. no sign of a breakthrough. anna: leaders in the latvian capital unleash criticism of russia over ukraine. mark: chinese stocks rally off the back of the s&p's record high while oil heads to the tent h straight week of gains.
manus: and the oil minister of saudi arabia says they will one day sell solar power instead. hello, welcome to "countdown." mark: breaking news out of germany. it seems as if the figure is 3%. in line with the earlier estimate after the economy expanded 7% -- 0.7%. consumption rose as a sign of confidence. private consumption advanced 0.6%. trade was the drag on growth.
confirming that may 13 estimate. while the slowdown -- the bank says the economic expansion will continue. a gauge of business confidence will be published a little later this month. it is forecast to remain close to a 10 month high even as every momentum in manufacturing signals the economy is not immune to risks from weaker global trade. the economy expanding in line with the earlier estimate. manus: a couple of lines we broke earlier about greece. they are very close to signing a deal with her creditors. there are a couple more but i think are bringing to our viewers attention. a government spokesman says they
will not compromise on labor reforms or pensions. these are the red lines. the greeks had said they would reach a deal with their creditors by the end of may, but they say they will not compromise on labor reforms. they have proposed the a t scales. -- vat scales of 7%. 14% and 22%. a little more color on the break of of the discussion. anna: let's talk about that. late night negotiations between alexis tsipras and his counterparts broke up without any deal. we are joined by hans nichols and also a reporter in athens.
hans, let's start with you. they talked into the early hours. it seems the greeks are taking the story forward a little bit already. hands: they have released a little bit. until there is confirmation from either the german or french side that there was real progress, what everybody is saying is the talks took place in a good climate. they were in close proximity. a lot of the pessimism is driven by the fact that there is so much optimism going in last night. there is still a chance for them to stay in close contact and they could always restart this. we know more about the redline pension reform and labor reform. it is clear the greeks do not want to compromise on those two points. it is equally clear angela merkel thinks that is important.
before you can start talk about a third program and potentially a third they'll out. anna: let's go to you. what is the take in athens? we are getting old but in this -- getting a little better in the statement, suggesting there is no cover lies on labor and pension but maybe some on vat? reporter: clearly athens was expecting more. they managed to meet another self imposed deadline. talking about the solution after the technical negotiations were stalled. we are back to technical negotiations once again. the government spokesman said we are looking for one solution one deal at the end of may. given the fact that he also said
we have red lines that hans talked about, i think the matter of 10 yeardays is not the length we would want. therefore, we might have to go down the road which is something the greek spokesman also denied this morning. to meet the liquidity issue in june for greece find some fiscal unity. and then tackle the pension and labor market forreforms in autumn. they said -- greece has to pay 1.4 billion euros to the imf from june 5 until june 19.
the liquidity has to be addressed immediately. anna: we were talking to the eu commissioner, who is reminded us the meeting is supposed to be about the relationship between eastern europe and the eu. let's stick with the greeks saga because it has dominated to some extent what has come out of the summit. what should we expect on the subject of greece? hans: it looks like there's going to be a meeting between mr. tsipras -- more progress needs to be made. we are going to get economic data out of greece that could show to what extent greases and it a difficult -- there's a
quote that says europe cannot simply throw grease out of the euro. the connections are much stronger than that. we do have real deadlines when greece simply will not be able to pay. anna. anna: that you very much. hans nichols our international correspondent. manus: reese is not the only flash point. greece a -- greece is not the only flash point. ukraine and russia. help me. guest: we have the eastern partnership in riga. the russians say the eastern partnership is more about russia bashing than actually including eastern european countries in that eu. i was big into the russian
ambassador. he says, they do not have a chance. it is really directed against us. i don't to get his fair to call it russia bashing. manus: strong language. orion: saying russia has to stop its aggression. the russians in response talking about how there is another flashpoint if you will in the geopolitical spat between russia and the west. the russian ambassador said it feels almost like ukraine. that is macedonia. why? the russians say, and this is a story that has been developing, that the european union and u.s. are trying to overthrow the government in macedonia because that government is supporting a russian pipeline traveling through its territory. have a listen to the russian
ambassador to the eu. >> the pattern of events and statements coming from the opposition inside the country and those from neighboring countries other countries, who are outside the create a picture which is quite sinister and quite resembling what happened in ukraine in the beginning of last year. or a number of other countries which became the venues for so-called color revolutions. i can admit macedonia is not devoid of corruption. that is probably indeed the
case. this doesn't make the country unique in the balkans for the broader geographical context. other countries are being invited to join the european union. in spite of similar corruption allegations. the protest being fermented in macedonia does indeed create a picture of a deliberate effort to punish the current government for its fairly independent stance on foreign-policy issues including its decision not to abide by eu policy for foreign candidates. restrictive measures against russia.
if you look at the geography of the region macedonia is the best place for constructing the extension of that energy infrastructure in the region. it is a suspicion. i don't have any hard-line facts. neither does my foreign minister who alluded to this and he said so. i think this is a logical suspicion. ryan: you think the u.s. and european union are trying to topple the government in macedonia, because let's say the government in macedonia is pro-russian in a nutshell. mr. chizhov: i wouldn't call the
government program russian. some people would say the current government in macedonia is center-right as compared to centerleft. ryan: the take is, they have no hard evidence western countries are working to ferment revolution. meanwhile, the eu and usa that is laughable. this is a space to watch, not just geopolitically because of the geopolitics of pipelines and what the russians are trying to do in terms of getting gas to the european union but also in the economic and financial read we had on the yields jumped by the most on -- bond yields jumped by the most on record. if you want to get gas from russia into western europe, so far they have an agreement to
take it to turkey. from turkey to the eu through greece. greece would be the hub. this is the so-called turkish stream after they've dropped the plan for south stream because of the bulgarians. where does it go from there? it has to go through macedonia. it is massively important. a $50 billion project. an interesting space to watch going forward. anna: breaking news. the financial conduct authority is going to begin a market study of competition in the investment banking sector. maybe a year from now, just under a year from now, they will study the bundling and cross subsidization of services. they will look at what they called a limited transparency provision of services. an update from the fca.
manus: let's go to caroline con nan with the latest from paris. today is all about finance? caroline: it is climate finance state. we will hear from executives from the banking sector insurance sector, about how climate change poses a risk to the financial world. they are going to discuss how they can help. how they can see carbon eyes -- decarbonize their portfolios. in many companies have had pressure from shareholders in order to try and reduce these investments. we have had it things from the saudi arabia oil minister, who
spoke on a panel yesterday with my colleague, francine lacqua. he said it even being the largest exporter of oil, they can do something in the fight against climate change. >> in saudi arabia, we recognize eventually one of these days we are not going to need fossil fuels. i don't know when. 2040, 2050, or thereafter. we have embarked on a program to develop solar energy. why? when we look up, we have the sun every day. panels. acreage to lay them out. that sounds like an attractive project. we are embarked on developing a major integrated industry from the silica in the ground to the
panel to the electric company. hopefully one of these days instead of exporting fossil fuels, we will be exporting gigawatts of electric power. does that sound good? [applause] francine: one of these days, in 30 years? >> i think you will see major gigawatt production in the next five years. caroline: this might sound like the world is upside down. the oil minister saying they are going to embark on a program to develop solar energy. we are going to speak to more executives coming up in a few minutes. a company that just changed
their name to reflect the fight against climate change and the transition to clean energy. mark: thank you. manus: the top stories on bloomberg. mario draghi is in portugal for the form. he said economic conditions have improved in europe, but growth is too low everywhere. he will give the keynote address at 9:00 a.m. london time. david cameron had a chance to make his case about the u.k. relationship with the eu. he is seeking changes to welfare reform that will help curb immigration. so he can make the case to voters to state in the union. it is not part of the summit agenda so this will have to be discussed on the sidelines.
hsbc suspended a senior credit trader, according to people familiar with the matter. the trader shared responsibility for investment grade and high yield on's. people close to the matter say they do not know the reasons for the suspension. anna: coming up on the program the next guest reckons there is a 40% chance of greece crashing out of the euro. let's see if the overnight news flow has changed his mind. our guest, scott key coming next. ♪
-- at the eu summit ended without any sign of a breakthrough. she is speaking as she arrived. greece must strike a deal with the institutions. greece telling us they will strike a deal by the end of the month. let's put this in some sort of context. scott key, ceo of ihs. great to have you with us. as you were coming up, mark asked you the ability of the grexit read 40%. how do you get there? it is quite low. scott: it has been rising. we are probably looking at a 50-50 chance now here in the coming couple of years depending on how things go. financially, politically, the situation is deteriorating. greece is between a rock and a hard place. anna: that is the timescale.
over the next couple of years. even if we saw something that looked like it heralded grexit it would not be immediate. not many treaties written about this. everything would be guesswork. scott: it is but the gap is widening. it starts with economics. greece sinking further into recession, not enjoying the recovery we are enjoying across europe. that will lead to rising tensions. mark: when you expect something significant to happen in the negotiations such as, we are not going to pay an imf loan? they could have easily not paid the one do a week or two ago? is june when it is going to happen?
scott: 1.7 million euros, and the imf payment on june 5. they have a month, they don't have to put them into default right away. then we have $6.7 billion in bonds due late july or early august. a couple of milestones that would signal default and be the beginning of a next it if we cannot find the path. manus: with a be better off leaving? scott: that is a great question. in many ways, yes. the people have an interest in staying in the union, but look at the protest and the difficulty. the people themselves are split whether they want to remain in or not. anna: could you see that going to a vote or does that have too many risks? unpredictability being one of them?
scott: i think they are going to vote with their feet as austerity measures have to be put in place. i think we will see it and levels of protest rise. the greek people may be making their decision through those actions. mark: will europe withstand the grexit? can it? scott: i think so. we have europe recovery. spain, industrial production up. quantitative easing stability measures in place. i think there would be very little blowback or contagion that wouldd happen. manus: a voice of optimism. thank you so much. scott key, president of global analytics at ihs. anna: we will be back and a couple of minutes on "countdown." we are heading to the final
strengthening. the bank of japan left their quantitative easing plans unchanged. stoploss, 118. that is your fx check. mark: climate finance day in paris. caroline connan is there with an exclusive interview. caroline: i am here with the ceo of ng. he is also the president of a company representing the european financial marketplace. it is climate finance day. can you tell me what is the role of finance in the fight against climate change? guest: the role is essential. in order to fight against climate change, trillions of u.s. dollars are needed.
70% of the financing will come from the private sector. we are pleased to gather the financial community. asset managers in order to finance the fight against climate change. caroline: you had a meeting with many is this leaders here. do you have the feeling the business community is leading the change? mestrallet: yes it is very interesting. five years ago, it was lagging behind the government in order to item against climate change. today, it is contrary. the gathering of all the chief executives and constructive
dialogue we had yesterday with the governments, the united nations in order to know what will be the best way to avoid climate catastrophe has been very intense. we have seen that first -- failure would mean uncertainty and a drop in investments. secondly,, we want to favor the technology. low carbon technology is essential for the energy transition. third, there has been an immense call for a global carbon price. caroline: do you think there is any hope to put a price on carbon this year?
mr. mestrallet: one single price would not make sense, it would not make sense. what we want and need is an extension of countries and regions having carbon pricing. it is very civil to understand. -- simple to understand. co2 is the coal of global warming. it is the enemy. we have to create a constraint. carbon pricing, -- which has been modernized by the new commission. with a target to reduce emissions by 40% at the horizon of 2030. many of the countries pick china for example.
china has put in place seven local markets. a carbon marketplace. in the big city, in 2017 normally there would be one single large carbon market in china. caroline: that will create the biggest world for carbon overnight in china. mr. mestrallet: yes and we hope other countries will add their own carbon markets. later on, it will be more easily connected and eventually there will be one price in the world. caroline: your company changed your name. have you had shareholders pressure to reduce your investment in coal? have you had pressure from shareholders? mr. mestrallet: we are pleased
to have the new name. the new strategy of the group. which we decided with the board two years ago to become energy leaders -- transition leaders. we have dialogue with shareholders. it is true that some shareholders, want to green their portfolio. clearly, gdf is on the move. we decided to accelerate our investment in efficiency. we are already the leaders. caroline: very quickly nuclear, is it a solution to the climate transition? mr. mestrallet: it is clear that nuclear technology is a part of
the solution. a limited part. but one which exists. we might to be interested to cooperate. caroline: many thanks. we have to wrap this up. live from paris. back to you. mark: thank you. anna: spain has seen the emergence of two parties. let's get more with ben in madrid. what makes the election so important? ben: spain is coming to the end of an economic slump, which has lasted just long enough for
people to think about whether they want a change in the system. the parties have become ossified karin they control the courts and regulators many of the banks which created the banking crisis. voters are looking at the possibility of change. spain faces the dilemma of whether to opt for something new. or whether to stick to what they know and protect the existing establishments. this is going to be an electoral cycle that which determines the way spain develops over the next 10 years or so. anna: in terms of going with the new or sticking with the status quo, are there any parallels with spain and the u.k.? should we expect a similar result, sticking with the status quo?
ben: there are parallels. on one hand you have a conservative government that has imposed austerity and has been unpopular going to the polls as the economy picks up. the difference is there have been massive corruption scandals in spain. we have a prime minister who has never put to bed the allegations he took quarter million euros in payments. if that was the case in the u.k., cameron would have been forced to resign years ago. the difference is the corruption angle. the question is to what extent do spaniards weighed that integrity issue when they go and decide whether they are going to give another termed the prime minister. anna: thank you for joining us. david cameron arriving at riga for the latvia summit. saying there will be ups and
the sheer scale in the u.k. or elsewhere of the wine market. fine wines in particular. guest: there are no definitive statistics but there are estimates on what is called the -- market in this country. goods that come in this country are called in bond or bonded. that is how the majority of winds come in. you have in warehouses, easily to .5 billion pounds -- 2.5-3 billion pounds. caroline: what are not only the pleasures but the risks? guest: the first is where is the wine held?
long-term storage is the best place to keep your wine and secure against theft issues. caroline: what are you feeling in terms of those coming to you, when he to be registered with you? where are they coming from? high net worth individuals? are you getting them from europe, china? matthew: u.k. is the global center. we do get it from a variety of places. there was a lifecycle involved. you start as a passionate collector. after a certain time, you have found you have invested a serious amount of money. you have graduated to an investor. at that point, you want to realize some of those gains or switch in between different vintages. you have found the wine market never really established an equitable professional. form.
-- professional platform. that is where we came in. caroline: is the regulation or protection? matthew: it is unregulated. that is where i would advise people to be mindful of these issues. going back to where the wine is stored, that is important. within the u.k., the bonded system is the most secure and will retain your money be best. be mindful of the investment advice, it is not necessarily held to the same standard as a regulated market. there is a widely held published graph that shows the return online's compared to stock markets. the statistics are fine but they don't tell you the entry and exit costs anywhere from 15-20%
slippage. it is not exactly an accurate historical comparison. caroline: you should be doing this because you are a collector, it is a passion. he went the flexibility to bring in different types of vintages. matthew: what we have achieved and are able to provide is a professional service. something very similar to buying and selling shares online at a low cost. 3% commission. considering what you are investing in and the amount you are investing, is an exceptional tool for you to trade and be able to buy at a cheaper price. caroline: what are people looking to trade most accurately? many people hold bordeaux to be the prime region. that got pushed up in terms of price points. where is the most active for
tile ground to be made in terms of trading wine? matthew: far and away, the bordeaux market is the center. everything else is peripheral. just the sheer scale of what they produce. careful about naming winds. we are very neutral. we don't want to recommend or promote anything. i am careful about giving wine names. bordeaux, those are going to be the most established winds in the market. the most highly traded. the most interesting aspect is the premier market. previously, they had been a trade off between people putting up their money early and waiting
for delivery of wine. caroline: that is when you buy, say i had just gone to bordeaux and i buy it before it is being bottled. matthew: delivered an two years time. there's a trade-off between investors speculating and getting a discount. that has broken down completely. when you discount back to present value, many vintages compared to where en premier prices are, there is not any value. that is the analysis we like to look at. the quantitative side of the market rather than the qualitative judgment. current line: think you for joining us. back to you, manus. manus: great interview. we are going to leave you with
let's not forget what preceded this record winning streak. from june 20, the red circle, all the way down to the green circle. that was a decline of almost 60% over nine months. from $107. what has happened to precipitate the turnaround? a cut in the number of u.s. drilling rigs will curb out put. they have reduced the number of active rigs i 58% since december. oil supplies have a dropped for the third week in a row. stockpiles have remained at the highest level. the next big event is on june the fifth.
the next meeting of opec in vienna. expect no change in the daily quota of oil, according to all but one of 34 analysts and traders. saudi arabia the strategy of defending market share, cutting out put to boost prices would not address the threat from shale. what about the outlook for prices? analysts redact a median price of $83 in the second quarter. $65 in the fourth quarter. in this quarter citigroup is the most bearish with a $35 call. for the fourth quarter, the most bearish, ubs securities, with a $50 forecast. earlier a $54 call for the
fourth quarter. the most bullish, $85. for the fourth quarter. 10 in a row for oil. what is next? manus: let's take a listen to what we heard from riga. one of the interviews from this morning. vassilis: -- mr. dombrovskis: for this to happen, it is important that all sides including greece stick with their commitments. anna: negotiations ran into the early hours of the morning. the leaders have arrived back for the negotiations. we have this tweet from alexis tsipras.
jonathan: good morning. welcome to "on the move." another record high on wall street. heading for the best week of gains on germany's dax since the start of the year. let's get straight to your morning brief. talks in riga go nowhere. late-night negotiations ended without a breakthrough to unlock bailout funds. optimism evaporates. boj optimism meets draghi's reality check. the bank of japan leaves stimulus unchanged and signals a more optimistic view. draghi says growth is too low
across europe. the last chance, that is the message from investors to the co-ceos of deutsche bank after they emerged with just over 60% of investors voting in their favor. we will talk about banks later. i'm looking at futures in london pretty much dead flat. dax futures dead flat. euro stoxx futures dead flat. i'm relying on manus cranny to make this more exciting. manus: it might be a little bit difficult. a lot of people are focusing on what draghi has to say. he made those opening salvo comments last night talking about lower growth. you also have janet yellen later in the day. we have the longest winning streak in stocks. looks like we are about to break that. a little more investment spending than consumer spending going on. yellen draghi, carney, all speaking in riga. no real optimism coming